Expiry Radar

Which expiry deserves your attention today? Every live expiry ranked 0–100 from IV percentile, term structure, tradeability and positioning — with the factor breakdown and a one-click jump into the simulator. Answers which expiry; Mission Control answers which strategy.

Regime: Carry / Calendar Environment · 36/100 · spot $63,917.6

Highest score

2026-07-31 · 2.6 DTE — Strong

91/100

best conditions for short strangle

Build Short strangle on this expiry →Simulate history

Build opens this exact live expiry at live marks in the Payoff Builder. Simulate replays the closest historical setup on the trade tape (ends Jun 2026) — same strategy, nearest available tenor, not this exact live expiry.

Historical edge · Short stranglemeasured — separate from the Score

Win rate

76%

Avg / trade

-0.11%

Profit factor

0.85

Avg winner

+0.88%

Avg loser

-3.19%

Max drawdown

−28.8%

★★★ high confidence· 115 historical expiries· entered ~3 DTE, held to expiry· BTC 2024-04-01→2026-06-23, fees in· past results, not a prediction

Expiries ranked by score

Expiry	DTE	Score	Outlook	Tradeability	ATM IV	Exp move	Suggested	Hist. edge
★ 2026-07-31	2.6	91	Strong	94	36.5% (99%)	±2.5%	Short strangle	76% · PF 0.85 ★★★	Build Simulate
2026-07-30	1.6	62	Neutral	21	35.6% (97%)	±1.9%	Short strangle	78% · PF 0.87 ★★★	Build Simulate
2026-08-07	9.6	49	Weak	18	34.4% (45%)	±4.5%	Short strangle	79% · PF 1.14 ★★★	Build Simulate
2026-07-29	0.6	47	Weak	75	25.4% (43%)	±0.8%	Short strangle	78% · PF 0.87 ★★★	Build Simulate
2026-09-25	58.6	43	Weak	22	35.8% (36%)	±11.4%	Short strangle	83% · PF 1.24 ★	Build Simulate
2026-08-14	16.6	38	Weak	12	34.6% (14%)	±5.9%	Short strangle	73% · PF 1.03 ★★★	Build Simulate
2026-08-28	30.6	36	Weak	32	34.3% (8%)	±7.9%	Short strangle	83% · PF 1.24 ★	Build Simulate

Compare two expiries

Pick two expiries to compare their score, IV, expected move and tradeability side by side.

Score is a transparent heuristic (weighted from live IV percentile, term structure, tradeability, tenor fit and PCR — oriented by the current regime), not a validated signal. No bid/ask exists in the data, so tradeability uses OI + active strikes.

Historical edge is measured and kept separate from the Score. It backtests the suggested strategy on the real BTC options tape (2024-04-01→2026-06-23): Per historical BTC expiry: enter at the last traded price at/before the entry-DTE checkpoint (no-look-ahead, leg must have traded within 48h), settle at intrinsic vs spot at 12:00 UTC. P&L in % of entry spot per unit notional, fees included. ATM = nearest traded strike to spot; strangle wings √time-scaled. Aggregate over Apr 2024 – Jun 2026, all regimes blended (regime-conditioned edge is a later layer). Round-turn fee per leg = 2 × min(0.03% of notional, 10% of premium) — Delta Exchange options taker schedule. Small samples (few historical expiries at a tenor) are flagged with fewer ★ or hidden entirely.

Past results are not a prediction. Educational — not a recommendation to trade.